Partners
Christopher Trisos, Chief Research Officer, African Climate and Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town
Cory Merow, Assistant Research Professor, University of Connecticut
Andreas Schwarz Meyer, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, African Climate and Development Initiative at the University of Cape Town
Ben Carlson, Postdoctoral Scholar, University of Connecticut
SSEC Engineers
Cordero Core, Senior Research Software Engineer, University of Washington, Scientific Software Engineering Center
Niki Burggraff, Senior Research Software Engineer, University of Washington, Scientific Software Engineering Center
Carlos Garcia Jurado Suarez, Principal Research Software Engineer, University of Washington, Scientific Software Engineering Center
Ishika Khandelwal, Graduate Research Scholar, University of Washington, Scientific Software Engineering Center
As global temperatures rise, preserving biodiversity is essential for the planet’s health and human well-being. Learning from past conditions helps us anticipate the risks climate change poses to countless species of flora and fauna. However, current biodiversity risk projections are often limited to a few snapshots of the future, typically around 2050 or 2100—far in the future and beyond the scope of shorter-term policy goals, targeted monitoring, and the immediate actions needed to protect biodiversity from imminent climate risks. As a result, decision-makers lack the necessary tools to design informed near-term conservation planning or adaptive management strategies, leaving gaps in addressing the urgent needs of biodiversity protection in a rapidly changing world.
The Biodiversity Horizons project addresses these limitations by predicting the impacts of climate change over the next 1–10 years for tens of thousands of animal species and hundreds of thousands of plant species worldwide. These near-term projections, updated annually, will be openly accessible to inform conservation, research, and policy-making efforts. This approach capitalizes on recent advances in climate models, particularly around short-term temperature predictions, as well as innovations in processing large-scale biodiversity data. By focusing on shorter, actionable horizons, Biodiversity Horizons enables immediate, responsive monitoring, allowing scientists to observe, test, and refine predictions in real time.
The team at the Scientific Software Engineering Center (SSEC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Cape Town, University College London, and the University of Connecticut, is developing an R-based software package to streamline these projections. Designed to be deployed on scalable platforms, this software can be used on high-performance computing (HPC) clusters or in cloud environments. With this software, researchers will have the flexibility to customize local projections, schedule high-volume tasks on HPC, and leverage cloud resources as needed—enhancing the adaptability and precision of their conservation efforts.
Biodiversity Horizons brings a level of dynamism, accessibility, and scale that is unique among biodiversity forecasts. Its continuously refined, short-term projections support targeted, effective monitoring and intervention strategies, creating a shared foundation for real-time biodiversity conservation across research communities. By aligning with immediate conservation needs, the project will provide tools to enhance our understanding of how species and ecosystems respond to current and emerging threats, helping to build resilience in the face of climate change.